In the wake of a major U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, global oil markets experienced an immediate jolt. Brent crude oil prices surged 8% over the weekend to approximately $78 a barrel, reflecting acute anxiety over Middle Eastern energy supplies. However, according to Goldman Sachs’ Head of Oil Research, Daan Struyven, this specific price point reveals exactly what traders are betting on: a disruption lasting about four weeks.
Nature, Published online: 25 February 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-00040-x
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